Norwegian green bond growth showed no clear link to local power prices

Did higher electricity prices during the Nordic energy crisis push borrowers toward green bonds? Phan and colleagues examined Norwegian bond listings and found no statistically significant evidence of such a relationship, although their study could not rule out smaller effects.

What the study found

In an arXiv preprint, Phan and colleagues studied bonds listed on Oslo Børs from 2019 to 2025. They combined European securities reference data, including matured bonds, with Euronext green bond classifications and issuer registry information. They then matched issuers to electricity bidding zones and analyzed bond choices using issuer and quarter fixed effects.

The authors report that green bonds rose from 15% of new listings in 2019 to 48% in 2024. But they found no statistically significant evidence that higher local electricity prices increased the likelihood of choosing a green bond over a conventional bond. That finding held across price-exposure windows of three to twelve months and for utilities and other issuers.

Why it matters

The results suggest that the growth in green bond listings was more closely associated with broader market trends than with local differences in electricity prices, according to the authors. The study also found no clear association between carbon prices and green bond choice.

Limits and unknowns

The main estimates rely on 21 identifying issuers. At 80% statistical power, the minimum detectable effect was 3.1 percentage points for a €10/MWh increase in electricity prices; smaller effects cannot be ruled out. The estimate for issuers with an earlier green bond was larger but imprecise, and the carbon-price analysis covered only eight utilities. The abstract does not provide the full effect estimates, confidence intervals or further details of the dataset and analysis.

Read the research

Authors: My Thi Diem Phan, Tuyen Trung Truong, Hoai Phuong Ha, Dat Thanh Nguyen

Published: 2026-10-29

Source basis: Based on the abstract only

Original abstract

The energy crisis of 2021 to 2023 caused a sharp increase in Nordic electricity prices, with substantial differences across bidding zones. We use this variation to examine whether issuers exposed to higher local electricity prices were more likely to choose green bonds over conventional bonds. We construct a dataset of bonds listed on Oslo Børs between 2019 and 2025 by combining ESMA FIRDS reference data, including matured bonds, with Euronext green bond classifications and issuer registry information. We then match issuers to their electricity bidding zones and examine the relationship between local power prices and green bond choice using issuer and quarter fixed effects. The share of green bonds among new listings increased from 15% in 2019 to 48% in 2024, but we find no statistically significant evidence that higher local electricity prices increased the likelihood of green bond issuance. This finding is consistent across price exposure windows of three to twelve months and for both utilities and other issuers. However, the estimates rely on 21 identifying issuers, and the minimum detectable effect at 80% statistical power is 3.1 percentage points for a 10 EUR/MWh increase in electricity prices, meaning that smaller effects cannot be ruled out. The estimated effect is larger but imprecise among issuers with an earlier green bond, which implies an existing framework. We also find no clear association between carbon prices and green bond choice, although this analysis covers only eight utilities. Overall, the findings suggest that the growth of green bond issuance in Norway was more closely associated with broader market trends than with differences in local electricity prices.

This article is an AI-generated adaptation, not a substitute for the original research. Preprints may not have been peer reviewed; AI can make mistakes.